{"id":609,"date":"2025-07-13T10:51:41","date_gmt":"2025-07-13T10:51:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cronicavj.ro\/?p=609"},"modified":"2025-07-13T10:51:41","modified_gmt":"2025-07-13T10:51:41","slug":"inflatia-urca-spre-8-poate-chiar-10","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/?p=609","title":{"rendered":"Infla\u021bia urc\u0103 spre 8%, poate chiar 10%"},"content":{"rendered":"

Vineri, c\u00e2nd sunt trei ceasuri rele, <\/span><\/span>INS a<\/span><\/span> anun\u021bat cre\u0219terea pre\u021burilor de la 5,45% \u00een mai la 5,7% luna trecut\u0103, prelu\u00e2nd efectele deprecierii monedei na\u021bionale care a urmat dup\u0103 primul tur al preziden\u021bialelor, iar rata anual\u0103 a infla\u0163iei comparativ cu iunie 2024, calculat\u0103 pe baza indicelui armonizat al pre\u0163urilor de consum (IAPC), a fost 5,8%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Evolu\u021bia a fost anticipat\u0103 de BNR, care a <\/span><\/span>men\u021binut mar\u021bi<\/span><\/span>dob\u00e2nda de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 la 6,5%, nivel stabilit \u00een august 2024. Majoritatea anali\u0219tilor <\/span><\/span>anticipeaz\u0103 o prim\u0103 t\u0103iere a ratei de referin\u021b\u0103 \u00een primele luni ale anului viitor.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cen comunicatul de pres\u0103 care a urmat \u0219edin\u021bei BNR, se specific\u0103 c\u0103 \u201epotrivit actualelor evalu\u0103ri, rata anual\u0103 a infla\u021biei va cre\u0219te considerabil \u00een urm\u0103toarele luni, sub impactul tranzitoriu al expir\u0103rii schemei de plafonare a pre\u021bului la energia electric\u0103 \u0219i al major\u0103rii \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu 1 augu<\/span><\/span>st a cotelor TVA \u0219i a accizelor<\/span><\/span>\u201d.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

U<\/span><\/span>nele estim\u0103ri v\u0103d o cre\u0219tere a infla\u021biei la 10 \u2013 11%, <\/span><\/span>valori comparabile cu c<\/span><\/span>ele din perioada pandemiei, <\/span><\/span>urmat\u0103 de o retragere spre 8%. <\/span><\/span>U<\/span><\/span>n raport al ING Bank anticipeaz\u0103 o cre\u0219tere a pre\u021burilor \u00een urm\u0103toarele luni \u00een culoarul 7,5 \u2013 8%, pentru ca \u00een a doua parte a anului viitor s\u0103 se retrag\u0103 la 4 \u2013 4,5%. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Perspectiva cre\u0219terii infla\u021biei, a taxelor \u0219i accizelor dar \u0219i aversiunea fa\u021b\u0103 de risc la nivel interna\u021bional, au influen\u021bat evolu\u021bia leului.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Cursul euro a crescut zilnic. Vineri, tranzac\u021biile s-au realizat \u00een culoarul 5,077 \u2013 5,082 lei, iar media a urcat de la 5,0810 lei, fa\u021b\u0103 de 5,06 lei, la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2nii precedente.<\/span><\/span> Anali\u0219tii BCR estimeaz\u0103 finalul anului un curs de 5,1 lei, \u201e<\/span><\/span>cu riscuri provenite din zona deficitului de cont <\/span><\/span>curent \u015fi a celui bugetar.<\/span><\/span>\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Indicii<\/span><\/span> ROBOR, <\/span><\/span>au sc\u0103zut <\/span><\/span>la minime ale ultimelor dou\u0103 luni,<\/span><\/span> sub impactul injec\u021biilor de lichiditate la care a recurs BNR \u00een lunile mai \u0219i iunie. Exist\u0103 riscul ca majorarea infla\u021biei s\u0103 determine o revenire a indicilor spre nivelul dob\u00e2nzii pentru facilitatea de creditare a BNR (rata lombard) care este de 7,5%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Vineri, i<\/span><\/span>ndicele ROBOR la trei luni, \u00een func\u0163ie de care sunt calculate dob\u00e2nzile la majoritatea creditelor \u00een lei contractate \u00eenainte de mai 2019, <\/span><\/span>a stagnat<\/span><\/span> la 6,75%<\/span><\/span>, fa\u021b\u0103 de 6,88%, la \u00eenceputul s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2nii<\/span><\/span>. Indicele la \u0219ase luni, folosit la calcularea ratelor la creditele ipotecare, a <\/span><\/span>cobor\u00e2t de<\/span><\/span> la 6,90<\/span><\/span> la 6,89<\/span><\/span>%,<\/span><\/span> fa\u021b\u0103 de 7%, lunea trecut\u0103,<\/span><\/span> iar cel la 12 luni a <\/span><\/span>aluneca<\/span><\/span>t de la 7,0<\/span><\/span>3<\/span><\/span> la 7,0<\/span><\/span>2%, dup\u0103 ce la \u00eenceputul s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2nii se afla la 7,12%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Vineri, moneda american\u0103 s-a apreciat fa\u021b\u0103 de principalele valute, inclusiv euro, dup\u0103 ce pre\u0219edintele Trump a anun\u021bat noi tarife vamale de 30% pentru produsele importate din<\/span><\/span> Uniunea European\u0103, \u00eenainte de terminarea negocierilor. Moneda unic\u0103 a alunecat la 1,1665 \u2013 1,1715 dolari, iar pia\u021ba de peste Ocean s-a \u00eenchis la 1,1679 dolari.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Cursul monedei americane a urcat de la 4,3157 lei, \u00een \u0219edin\u021ba de mar\u021bi, la 4,3461 lei, \u00een cea de vineri.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Fa\u021b\u0103 de \u00eenceputul anului, indicele dolarului a sc\u0103zut cu aproape 10% fa\u021b\u0103 de un co\u0219 al principalelor monede, <\/span><\/span>pe fondul temerilor <\/span><\/span>privind<\/span><\/span> impactul politicilor <\/span><\/span>Casei Albe<\/span><\/span>asupra celei mai mari economii a lumii.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Sc\u0103derea \u00een iunie a PIB-ului Regatului Unit cu 0,1%, de la una de 0,3% \u00een mai, a provocat deprecierea lirei fa\u021b\u0103 de euro al c\u0103rei curs a fost stabilit vineri la 5,8843 lei. Media francului elve\u021bian a urcat de la 5,4146 lei, \u00een \u0219edin<\/span><\/span>\u021b<\/span><\/span>a de luni, la 5,4596 lei.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Aprecierea de vineri a metalului galben la 3.320 \u2013 3.369 dolari\/uncie, a ridicat pre\u021bul gramului de aur de la 462,6381 lei la 466,3616 lei.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Analiza cuprinde perioada <\/span><\/span>7 \u2013 11<\/span><\/span> iulie
\n<\/span><\/span>Radu Georgescu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vineri, c\u00e2nd sunt trei ceasuri rele, INS a anun\u021bat cre\u0219terea pre\u021burilor de la 5,45% \u00een…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":610,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actual","category-administratie"],"yoast_head":"\nInfla\u021bia urc\u0103 spre 8%, poate chiar 10% -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/?p=609\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Infla\u021bia urc\u0103 spre 8%, poate chiar 10% -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Vineri, c\u00e2nd sunt 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