{"id":13847,"date":"2026-10-11T11:06:32","date_gmt":"2026-10-11T11:06:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/?p=13847"},"modified":"2026-10-11T11:06:32","modified_gmt":"2026-10-11T11:06:32","slug":"quo-vadis-leo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/?p=13847","title":{"rendered":"Quo vadis, leo?"},"content":{"rendered":"

S\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103, <\/span>s-a desf\u0103\u0219urat<\/span> \u0219edin\u021ba de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 a BNR unde s-a decis men\u021binerea dob\u00e2nzii de referin\u021b\u0103 la 6,5%, valoare stabilit\u0103 \u00een august 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

Anali\u0219tii<\/span> anticipeaz\u0103 men\u021binerea acestui nivel p\u00e2n\u0103 la jum\u0103tatea <\/span>lui 2027<\/span>, \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care infla\u021bia a re\u00eenceput s\u0103 creasc\u0103, dup\u0103 sc\u0103derea din august la 6,17%.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cen august<\/span>, guvernatorul BNR estima pentru decembrie o cre\u0219tere a infla\u021biei la 6,1%, pe fondul secetei, caniculei \u015fi problemelor legate de<\/span> produc\u0163ia de energie electric\u0103, iar<\/span> o analiz\u0103 BCR anticipeaz\u0103 o majorare a pre\u021burilor de 6,4 \u2013 6,9% \u00een dinamic\u0103 anual\u0103.<\/span><\/p>\n

C<\/span>omunicatul de pres\u0103 <\/span>de la finalul<\/span> \u0219edin\u021bei<\/span> BNR<\/span> a ar\u0103tat <\/span>c\u0103 <\/span>\u201erata anual\u0103 a infla\u021biei se va plasa pe o traiectorie ascendent\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 la finele anului curent, \u00een principal pe fondul influen\u021belor anticipate s\u0103 decurg\u0103 din cre\u0219terea pre\u021burilor combustibililor \u0219i energiei \u0219i din m\u0103rirea cota\u021biilor altor materii prime, inclusiv agroalimentare – \u00een contextul prelungirii conflictului din Orientul Mijlociu \u0219i al secetei severe din acest an -, precum \u0219i din evolu\u021bia cursului de schimb al leului\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cursul euro a urcat mar\u021bea trecut\u0103 un maxim istoric de 5,3527 lei, <\/span>\u00een lipsa instal\u0103rii la Palatul Victoria a unui guvern cu puteri depline, \u00een timp ce la nivel interna\u021bional se manifest\u0103 un puternic sentiment de aversiune fa\u021b\u0103 de risc<\/span>, stimulat <\/span>de aprecierea dolarului \u0219i <\/span>cre\u0219terea dob\u00e2nzii<\/span> obliga\u021biunilor principalelor economii ale lumii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vineri<\/span>, tranzac\u021biile s-au realizat <\/span>\u00eentre<\/span> 5,339 <\/span>\u0219i<\/span> 5,346 lei, <\/span>iar<\/span> media <\/span>euro<\/span> a cobor\u00e2t de la 5,3470 la 5,34<\/span>14 lei, mai mult cu apro<\/span>ape 5% fa\u021b\u0103 de \u00eenceputul anului, respectiv cu peste 7,6% fa\u021b\u0103 de sf\u00e2r\u0219itul lui 2024, dup\u0103 anularea alegerilor preziden\u021biale.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cen 2025<\/span> oficialii BNR vorbeau despre o supraapreciere a leului de 5%<\/span>. \u00ce<\/span>n perioada urm\u0103toare, p<\/span>resiunea pe <\/span>c<\/span>urs <\/span>va fi una constant\u0103<\/span>, \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care<\/span> BNR<\/span> a l\u0103sat de \u00een\u021beles va oferi<\/span> mai mult\u0103 \u201elibertate\u201d <\/span>pie\u021bei <\/span>\u00een privin\u021ba regl\u0103rii cursului<\/span>. Ea<\/span> a preferat s\u0103 <\/span>sterilizeze<\/span> excedentul de lichiditate<\/span> din segmentul monetar<\/span>, <\/span>pentru a face <\/span>leul mai \u201escump\u201d pentru eventualii speculatori.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pe acest fond, indicii ROBOR au revenit la valorile de la \u00eenceputul anului.<\/span><\/p>\n

La sf\u00e2r\u0219itul s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2nii, cel la <\/span>la trei luni, \u00een func\u0163ie de care sunt calculate dob\u00e2nzile la majoritatea creditelor \u00een lei contractate \u00eenainte de mai 2019, a stagnat la 6,10%, cel la \u0219ase luni, folosit la calcularea ratelor la creditele ipotecare, <\/span>a cobor\u00e2t de <\/span>la 6,16<\/span> la 6,15<\/span>%, iar cel la 12 luni<\/span> a urcat de<\/span> la 6,21<\/span> 6,22<\/span>%, \u00een timp ce <\/span>randamentul obliga\u021biunilor rom\u00e2ne\u0219ti la 10 ani stagna la 7,24 \u2013 7,30%<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cens\u0103<\/span>, un leu mai slab aduce \u0219i beneficii. Se asigur\u0103 astfel intr\u0103ri mai mari la buge<\/span>t<\/span>, <\/span>se <\/span>stimuleaz\u0103 exporturile \u0219i <\/span>se <\/span>scumpe<\/span>sc<\/span> importurile, <\/span>ceea ce echilibreaz\u0103<\/span> balan\u0163a comercial\u0103 \u0219i deficitul de cont curent, \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care investi\u021biile str\u0103ine directe s-au redus \u00een primul semestru de peste 5 ori, comparativ cu aceea\u0219i perioad\u0103 din 2025, iar intr\u0103rile de capital, cele care au asigurat <\/span>stabilitate<\/span>a<\/span> cursului<\/span> \u00een anii preceden\u021bi<\/span>, s-au transformat de la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul lui 2024 \u00een ie\u0219iri.<\/span><\/p>\n

Conform raportului \u201e2027 Macroeconomic Outlook\u201d realizat de CFA Rom\u00e2nia, cursul euro va cunoa\u0219te p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul lui 2027 o apreciere gradual\u0103 \u0219i <\/span>ar putea cre\u0219te 5,40 \u2013 5,50 lei<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pentru a evita mi\u0219c\u0103ri mai ample ale cursului, banca central\u0103 are la dispozi\u021bie o rezerv\u0103 valutar\u0103 consistent\u0103, chiar dac\u0103 ea s-a redus \u00een septembrie la <\/span>60<\/span>,<\/span>059 mili<\/span>arde euro \u0219i poate utiliza o linie repo deschis\u0103 de BCE \u00een valoare de 4 miliarde euro.
\n<\/span>Radu Georgescu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103, s-a desf\u0103\u0219urat \u0219edin\u021ba de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 a BNR unde s-a decis men\u021binerea dob\u00e2nzii…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10197,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13847","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actual","category-economic"],"yoast_head":"\nQuo vadis, leo? - Cronica de Hunedoara<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/?p=13847\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Quo vadis, leo? - Cronica de Hunedoara\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"S\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103, s-a desf\u0103\u0219urat \u0219edin\u021ba de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 a BNR unde s-a decis men\u021binerea dob\u00e2nzii...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/?p=13847\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Cronica de Hunedoara\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-11T11:06:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/bani.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"736\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"416\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Scris de\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Timp estimat pentru citire\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/?p=13847#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/?p=13847\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/#\/schema\/person\/d1a1277a8cd166610328e17aaf58bf46\"},\"headline\":\"Quo vadis, leo?\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-11T11:06:32+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/?p=13847\"},\"wordCount\":606,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/?p=13847#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/bani.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Actualitate\",\"economic\"],\"inLanguage\":\"ro-RO\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/?p=13847\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cronicahd.ro\/?p=13847\",\"name\":\"Quo vadis, leo? 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